Wednesday, January 28, 2009

Super Bowl Picks

Okay, enough about politics and theology and other deep chin-stroking topics.
We have a football game this weekend.
Super Bowl 43.
The Arizona Cardinals vs The Pittsburgh Steelers.

The line opened with Steelers -6.5, and there was so much money wagered on the Steelers that they've increased the spread to Steelers by 7. Super Bowls are usually blowouts by the home team. The favorite usually wins. But I like the Cardinals to at least cover a 7-point spread.

And now, the fun stuff....

The winning coach usually gets a sideline Gatorade shower. Odds are 3-1 that the Gatorade will be yellow, instead of any other color. Load up on the other color. There's been so much publicity on this bet, I'm predicting some contrarians have stocked the coolers with the Red Fruit Punch flavor.

Here are a few others listed by Fox Sports:

Kurt Warner -23.5 passing yards over Ben Roethlisberger. If the Cardinals are going to at least cover a 7-point spread, it'll be because Warner throws at least 75 yards more than Big Ben. Take Warner.

Will Kurt Warner break Joe Montana's Career Super Bowl Record of 1,142 Passing Yards? Yes: +475 No: -700 (If you don't understand Money Line "Yes/No" bets, click here.) Take the NO, and quickly. Warner would need 364 passing yards to do this, and that ain't going to happen.

Total rushing yards by Willie Parker — Over/Under 75.5 The guys at Fox News don't like the odds of Parker breaking 75.5, and took the under. The guys at Fox News also didn't like the odds of Barack Obama being elected President. Take the over.

Total receiving yards by Larry Fitzgerald — Over/Under 83.5 Larry Fitzgerald is a beast. Larry Fitzgerald is not human. Larry Fitzgerald doesn't just bite, he also chews. Take the over.

Total kickoff returns by both teams — Over/Under 9.5 Remember, you have a kickoff to begin each half. That leaves you with only 8 more touchdowns or field goals needed to break this one. I think we'll have plenty of field goals. I like the over.

Total distance on the first punt of the game — Over/Under 41.5 yards Yeah, your typical NFL punter can boot it a lot further than 41.5 yards. But what if you're kicking from somewhere in no-man's land between midfield and field goal range? Go under.

Pittsburgh + Arizona total points -12.5 over LeBron James total points at Detroit For newcomers to Super Bowl betting insanity, you might need me to break this one down for you. Here's how it works. Add up the total points scored in the Super Bowl. Subtract 12.5 points. (The half point eliminates any chance of a tie.) Is this number higher or lower than the number of points that the NBA's LeBron James of the Cleveland Cavaliers will score against the Detroit Pistons?
LeBron knows about this bet, right? LeBron will want to reward everyone who picked him to cover this, right? LeBron has been averaging 28 points per game, right? LeBron can control his own destiny in this thing easier than the Steelers and Cardinals, right? Take LeBron.

Pittsburgh + Arizona total sacks -0.5 over Ernie Els fourth round birdies (18 holes/Dubai Classic) It's golf, fer heaven's sake. Who cares? Take the sack total anway.

How long will it take Jennifer Hudson to sing the National anthem? — Over/Under 1:54 Just one minute and fifty four seconds? Jennifer Hudson is going to throw in more obligattos, fermatas, trills, shakes and shimmies than Francis Scott Key could have imagined. Yes, I know the music at these things is always pre-recorded. There are people out there who already know the exact length of Sunday's national anthem. But if you're singing at the Super Bowl, you don't sing it like a marching band plays it. Take the over.

What color will (Cardinals owner) Bill Bidwell's bow tie be? Red -600, Any other color +400 Cardinals are red. The team and the bird. Bidwell usually wears red bow ties, except for when he doesn't. He wears red so often that I think this one is fixed, simply because they're willing to take money on it as a competitive wager. I think someone has gotten Bidwell a good luck bow tie in a color other than red. Take the other color.

These picks have been brought to you by The Whited Sepulchre Sports Wagering Ministry.


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