Showing posts with label Law of Unintended Consequences. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Law of Unintended Consequences. Show all posts

Friday, November 8, 2013

I am a Mercedes-Benz

Let me begin by saying that I am a Mercedes-Benz.  Not a Ferrari, not a Rolls, not a Corvette, but a little better than a Cadillac. 

I'm 53 years old, work in a family business, and I've always been pretty damn good at what I do.  I've been "Employee Of The Year" or "Manager Of The Year" for three different companies, one of which you've probably heard of. 

If Washington decides to raise the minimum wage to $20.00 an hour I won't be one of the ones going unemployed because the political idiots set the bar too high for me to find employment.  Except for one brief stretch of starting over in a new field, I've made more than $20 per hour for the last 30 years or so.  (Thirty years ago, $20 was more like today's $40.)   

Now that the throat-clearing is out of the way, here's what you'll find this morning in the New York Holy Times:
The White House has thrown its weight behind a proposal to raise the federal minimum wage to at least $10 an hour.  
“The president has long supported raising the minimum wage so hard-working Americans can have a decent wage for a day’s work to support their families and make ends meet,” a White House official said. President Obama, the official continued, supports the Harkin-Miller bill, also known as the Fair Minimum Wage Act, which would raise the federal minimum wage to $10.10 an hour, from its current $7.25.  
The legislation is sponsored in the Senate by Tom Harkin of Iowa and in the House by George Miller of California, both Democrats. It would raise the minimum wage — in three steps of 95 cents each, taking place over two years — to $10.10, and then index it to inflation. The legislation will probably be coupled with some tax sweeteners for small businesses, traditionally the loudest opponents of increases to the minimum wage.


The overwhelming majority of economists know that there is a trade-off with this type of legislation. 

1)  They know that the true minimum wage is zero dollars per hour, and that the higher Washington sets the minimum (actually, a price floor), the more low-skilled workers they condemn to earning the true minimum wage, which is....zero. 

2)  They also know that higher and higher minimum wages have a disproportionate effect on teen employment, minority employment, and most of all, teen minority employment.  A couple of years ago, when the unemployment rate was at 9%, teen unemployment was at 24%, and black teen unemployment was at a whopping 42%.  (It's now dancing around 50%, BTW.) 

Why does this happen?  As a very general rule, minority teens have no skills.  No track record.  No one knows if they can get to work on time, work hard through an entire shift, or get along with others. 

The same thing can be said about white teens.  But white parents can (generally) get to work on time, work hard through an entire shift, and (sometimes) get along with others.  And the apples usually don't fall too far from the tree. 

So if you're thinking about hiring a kid, who are you going to go with?  The little white snowflake from the 'burbs, or the black kid from the 'hood?

Here's what you're going to do.  I've sat back and watched you do it.  This is the minority teen unemployment rate, cross-referenced to the rising minimum wage.  One of the most beautiful correlations you'll ever see:



I'm almost 100% safe from unemployment.  So is my daughter.  We got us some skills.  We can type, manage, hire, fire, ship, transport, purchase, cashier, file, pile and get 'er done. 

I'm a Mercedes-Benz. 
Minority teens are 30-year-old Yugos. 

If the government declares that the least you can pay for a car is $50,000.00, which one are you going to buy? 

You're going to go with the Mercedes every time. 

Good work, Barack!!




 

Sunday, November 3, 2013

3 Possible Explanations For Leftist Behavior

Your chances of being seriously injured in an automobile accident today are much less than 1%. 
If you have a baby in the car with you, and the child is not in a protective "infant seat", the child's chance of serious injury or death is still much less than 1%.  It's not even 1/100th of 1%. 

But if you want to see our friends on the political left start tearing out their hair, ripping their clothes, calling the police, and having fainting spells, just throw a two-year-old in your car without strapping the kid into an infant seat, and make a quick run to the grocery store and back.  There is a very small chance that you could do some small injury to the child, and this makes nanny-staters have anxiety attacks. 

Now, consider this: 

If a government doesn't have any restraints on its ability to print paper money - i.e. "fiat currency" - the chances of inflation ruining its economy are 100%.  It will have a ruinous effect on every child in the nation.  They will all live diminished lives as a result of older generations refusing to pay as they go.  It will happen every....single....time.  ALL paper money has eventually become valueless (except to collectors and hobbyists) and it has always been the younger generations who are stuck cleaning up the mess. 

Here's another fun fact.....  Each year in the United States, approximately 30,000 persons with BB and pellet gun-related injuries are treated in hospital emergency departments.  Most (95%) injuries are BB or pellet gunshot wounds; 5% are other types of injuries (e.g., lacerations sustained inadvertently while cleaning or shooting a gun, or contusions resulting from being struck with the butt of a gun). Most (81%) persons treated for BB and pellet gun wounds are children and teenagers. 

That's why most of our friends on the political left don't allow their kids to go near a BB or pellet gun.  (Side note - When I was a kid, my friends and I often had minor BB and pellet gun-related injuries.  None of these battle scars were accidental, because we were shooting at each other.  Fun as hell, and the current generation of fragile, dainty, precious little snowflakes will never know that joy.) 

30,000 minor injuries per year from BB guns, and 95% of the victims are children and teenagers?  That's a lot. 

Contrast that unspeakable horror with this one.  The minority teen employment rate is now approaching 50%.  With 8 million minority teenagers in the U.S., this means 4 million are unemployed. 

Our minimum wage laws make it illegal to employ them.

(The thought process of the Statists is that the kids are better off unemployed and jobless at a minimum wage of $7.25, than employed and productive at the wage of $3, $4, or $6 per hour that their skills are worth.) 

Our friend on the left do not give a shit.  You really can't imagine the size of the shit which they do not give.  Go figure. 

Our friends on the political left want to do whatever is necessary to protect us from the big, bad world.  They'll delay the approval and release of life-saving medicines, even though the delays probably cost us 100,000 lives per year.  They even boast about how many lives the new drug will "save" each year.  Do the math, and you'll quickly learn how many lives were lost by preventing the manufacturer from selling it 5 years earlier.

So why the disconnect? 

My theory is that Statists just enjoy messing with agreements that are none of their business.  I don't like the idea that there are people whose skills are only worth $3.00 per hour.  I hate it.  But I also know that work of any type, for any salary, teaches people about punctuality, dependability, and other good work habits.  Almost all $3.00 labor is eventually worth $7.25 to someone, somewhere.  So you'll never catch me lobbying for an alternative universe where low-skilled labor is worth as much as skilled labor.  I don't have that mindset.  As long as the parties in the job agreement does what they says they're gonna do, it's none of my business, or yours. 

Here's another possibility for the contradiction.  Statists generally aren't held responsible for unintended consequences of their policies.  Rather than voting for the candidate who promises to reduce eliminate Social Security payments to millionaires, they support the guy who is going to print money to make the payments.  The kids don't see an immediate harm to themselves, and plus, kids can't vote.  That might explain some of the bizarre policies, and the same explanation easily applies to stimulus packages, economic development boondoggles, and healthcare debacles. 

Those theories - love of meddling and freedom from consequences - aren't enough to explain all of it. 

There's always the possibility, of course, that they're just freakin' stupid. 

Monday, August 5, 2013

I already know that I'm going to hell

My great friends from high school, Henry and Patricia Farrish, posted this on my Facebook wall. 
I have no idea why. 
LOL. 

 

Sunday, August 4, 2013

Who'd A-Thunk It ???

My unofficial economics mentor #1, Don Boudreaux at Café Hayek, is starting a new series called "Who'd a-Thunk it?" 

I assume he's going to post things about the inevitable consequences of government policy, and the shocked, shocked reactions from supporters of those policies when things don't work out as planned.  (You know, the law of unintended consequences, things seen and unseen, markets responding rationally to punishment, etc.) 

In other words, "Who'd a-Thunk that punishing businesses by making them pay for healthcare would cause businesses to hire fewer employees?"

Boudreaux is accepting your submissions.  The first to be published was supplied by my unofficial economics mentor #13 (yeah, I have them numbered), Greg Mankiw.  It's from an email he received Saturday morning:

I have been teaching multiple sections of economics for four years now at several Colleges and Universities in the State of Indiana. I have also been a frequent user of your texts in the classes that I teach.

With the implementation of the ACA (Affordable Care Act) these institutions are giving notification to their part-time faulty that their individual teaching schedules will now be limited to three sections. At the college this will likely result in the cancellation of 20-25% of the class sections in economics, and I would assume other areas will have a similar result. The students are not fully aware of the situation and many will be surprised that their desire to get a college education is now being impacted by the need to avoid the full implementation of the ACA.

Regardless if you are a Republican or a Democrat I would hope full-time faculty would voice their concern regarding the impact the implementation of the ACA could have on the attainment of higher education for the current student population and upon the lives of the dedicated part-time faculty that have been devoted to serving this student population.
My hope is that if faculty across the nation brought this to the public attention that we as a nation could have a more open and complete dialogue regarding the course we wish to set as a nation.

Good stuff, isn't it? 

Elections have consequences.  Who'd a-Thunk it? 


 

Friday, March 29, 2013

Juicy Couture employees find out what's in the bill

Nancy Pelosi's contribution to Bartlett's Quotations will probably be her famous line encouraging people to vote for ObamaCare:  "But we have to pass the (healthcare) bill so you can find out what's in it." 

The good people of the Juicy Couture fashion company have learned. 

The hard way. 

I apologize to The Twitchy for scraping this post in it's entirety.  Please go there every day.  The Twitchy never fails to please.  The block quotes below are Tweets.  Hit the link to see them in proper format. 

Here goes:
The latest thing causing a leftist tizzy? Juicy Couture is joining the ranks of businesses that are forced to cut workers’ hours in order to try to mitigate the devastating cost of Obamacare.
Not just any workers. The Dudes of Juicy. No, for real.
Oh, dear. After you’ve picked yourself up from the floor where you have surely fallen in a fit of giggles, check out the rest.
RedState had more Thursday morning:
Yesterday, some person (or group) tweeted to me a link to a campaign (allegedly) by and for the current and former employees of Juicy Couture to demand “just hours.”
You see, according to the campaign, the hip and trendy Juicy is doing what other companies are doing in an effort to cope with the burdensome regulations and costs of the “Affordable Health Care Act” (aka ObamaCare)–the company is downsizing its full-time payroll to (mostly) part-time workers.
Surprise! Well, not if you have a functioning brain.
The group has taken the campaign to Twitter.




From their hilarious petition:
When we began working at Juicy Couture, many of us were full-time. Now, only 19 of the store’s 128 employees are full-time! Not only are they firing full-time workers and replacing us with a part-time workforce, just this month Juicy capped all part-time workers hours at 21 hours per week. We quickly realized that Juicy Couture is doing everything they can to not take care of its workers.
See, it was hard enough for us to make ends meet in New York City as full-time retail workers. But by keeping hours under 30 per week, Juicy Couture will no longer be required to offer their workers affordable health care – part of the Affordable Health Care Act’s plan to make sure more working Americans have basic health care. Further, we were told we’re only eligible for paid time off in case we’re sick or have other responsibilities if we work 1400 hours in one year. We did the math, and realized part-time workers reach that at 21 hours per week. This means that the vast majority of Juicy Couture’s workers will not ever get one single paid sick day.
That mean old company won’t throw extra cash at them so that they can live the New York City lifestyle to which they’ve become accustomed! Dear Dudes: Companies are in business to stay in business and employ people. Obamacare regulations are making that increasingly more difficult; the costs are staggering and burdensome. That whole “you can keep your plan” deal? Obama lied.
Shocked and angered lefties join the campaign.
SEIU’s digital campaign manager:
Students Against Sweatshops. Yes, this exists:
Because, you know, hip and trendy Juicy Couture workers not being able to get the highest iPhone plan is totally like the Triangle Fire. (Too soon?)
More shock and fretting.
The sane give them a little dose of reality.
Bingo. Elections, they have consequences. Even for the Dudes of Juicy (stop! our sides!)

Well, I feel bad for these folks.  But you do get what you vote for. 

Thursday, October 25, 2012

Equal Pay For Equal Work??

I watched a little bit of the baseball highlights, and started thinking about....The Lilly Ledbetter Fair Pay Act. 

MLB baseball salaries are all over the place.  Some players have deferred compensation.  Other contracts are front-loaded, and some are heavier toward the end.  A lot of them have performance clauses. 

Pick two Major League Baseball players whose performance/results are closest.  You'll have a helluva time finding them, because of hitting, throwing, fielding and base-running differences, but try anyway. 

Once you've found two that are remotely close, look at how long each has been in the league. 

Then look at how long each is likely to remain in the league. 

Then look through the newspapers and try to learn if they're equally good leaders in the clubhouse. 

Find two players who are identical.  Equal.  The same. 

Then look at what they're paid.  I bet the pay rates aren't even close. 

There is no such thing, anywhere on earth, as equal work for equal pay.  People aren't the same, no matter how much our government Lords'n'Masters want them to be. 

But apply this same little test to your workplace.  Pick out someone else who does your job, but who is really, really bad at it.  Now, prove that you're better than him. Convince your boss that you deserve to be paid more, and that he should take the risk of giving you more money.  Prove beyond all doubt that you're better than the slacker. 

Will your proof hold up in court?  Maybe, maybe not.

Get ready to be paid the same as the slacker.  The Law Of Unintended Consequences is going to kick your ass. 

Friday, December 2, 2011

You got served !!

From the greatness of Reason magazine, on how to deal with Nanny State legislators who don't know how to find their way out of a sack, but who believe they know what's best for you to eat:

San Francisco's ban on giving away a free toy with a child's meal containing a certain number of calories, salt, and other particulars is set to kick in tomorrow. McDonald's, the clear target of the ban, had a year to figure out a way to change its business practices. Seems like they used the time wisely, reports the SF Examiner.
The San Francisco ban on providing free toys to entice children to eat unhealthy foods goes into effect Thursday, but McDonald’s plans to comply with the law by charging 10 cents a toy for their Happy Meals and donating the money to the nonprofit Ronald McDonald House.
(Catch that nice bit of editorializing about what's "unhealthy" there?)

And from the SF Weekly:

In any event, it appears the fast food chain's sharpie lawyers have McTopped San Francisco's legislators. Count this city's lawmakers as the latest among the billions and billions served.

Good for McDonald's.  They got around the toy ban by charging a dime for the toy. 

 The Aggie grew up eating McDonald's Happy Meals, and has now upgraded to McDonald's Value Meals (or the WhataBurger equivalent) and she now has the body fat of a mop handle and can do enough pull-ups to qualify for Navy Seal training.  Out of 120 people who tried to make it into the YMCA's lifeguard training program, she's one of 12 who qualified, and one of only 7 who finally passed the class.  (Not that I'm proud or anything....)

There's a lot that's unknown about proper diet and health, but this much is clear:

1) The San Francisco City Council doesn't know jack shit about this topic.  The Federal Government knows even less.  Go here for a personal testimony. 

2) Michelle Obama tried to hop on the Food Nazi Bandwagon last year, releasing some guidelines from her throne for all of us who truly love our children to follow.  Go here for the pics of Barack feeding a hot dog into The Teleprompter's orifice a few days later.

3) When I was in the Literary Retail business, I sold every diet and nutrition book that was brought to market.  The new ones couldn't be kept on the shelf, they sold so quickly.  They had totally different content than the old ones published the year before.  The old ones couldn't be given away, mostly because they were old and had different contents than the new ones that were recently featured and slobbered over by Oprah Winfrey.  The only things these books had in common were dietician authors and a short shelf life. 

4) I grew up being told to eat my fruit, eat my fruit, eat my fruit.  But that stuff turns to sugar as soon as it is digested.  I don't eat quite as much fruit now.  I feel better.
    
5) All laws, rules and regulations have unintended consequences and create different incentives from the ones intended by the prophets who bring them down from the mountain.  As an example, Happy Meal toys are now cloaked in the righteousness of the Ronald McDonald Houses.  Good work, guys !

Here's the great Jonathan Edwards, doing his 1971 mega-hit "Sunshine".  (I especially like the line "Some man's gone, he's tried to run my life, he don't know what he's askin'.  He can't even run his own life, I'll be damned if he'll run mine.") 


One last thing, totally off-topic....Edwards mentions performing this at an anti-war rally.  Are we going to have any more of those rallies, or do we have to elect a Republican president first????

Thursday, December 1, 2011

On taking a chance by hiring a 55 year old

I had an interesting conversation today with a new employee.  He's 55 years old, works in another department, and he mentioned that he really felt grateful to have a job with us since many companies are no longer willing to take a chance on a 55 year old. 

The guy has plenty of experience, and probably has great references and credentials. 

So why wouldn't other companies take a chance on him? 

It's because if he doesn't work out and he has to be fired, he can sue his employer for age discrimination. 

Doh ! 

In my previous job, I hired, trained and promoted enough gays to staff the Disneyworld parade.  But the powers-that-be got nervous.  Very nervous.  I eventually got sat down and told about the realities of Civil Rights law, and that I might want to take it easy on hiring those fine folks.  Lots of lawsuits over minority firings were in the works.  (Comic episode:  I'm ashamed that I actually tried to comply with this.  I promoted 3 consecutive people who came out of the closet 15 minutes after I promoted them.  Ha !  I hope you're out there reading this, Betsy Batchelder.)

Do you think that maybe, just maybe, more companies would promote more racial minorites to better positions if the companies couldn't be sued for changing their minds later on????

If I decide to stop giving money to Joe's Plumbing Service and start purchasing the same service from Bill's Plumbing Service, do I have to prove that I didn't do so because of Joe's age, race, weight, sexual orientation, religion, voting record, or attitudes toward dachshund ownership?  No.  That's why excellent plumbing services owned by old, black, fat, gay, Mormon, Libertarian dachshund owners are likely to stay in business just as long as excellent plumbing services owned by young, Hispanic,healthy, straight, Presbyterian, Democrat cat owners.  Customers aren't punished if they take a chance on a minority employee and change their minds later.  (And if you hire a plumber, you are an employer.  The plumber is your employee.  Please hurry up and wrap your head around that concept !!)

Purchasing labor and effort should be just like purchasing pizzas or lug nuts.

If I decide to switch from Kroger to Wal-Mart, I don't have to fill out any paperwork.  I just purchase goods and services from Wal-Mart.  Same thing for the people who replace my roof after every hailstorm.  I don't think I've ever used the same people twice.  I probably change my mind every time, and it's none of Harry Reid and John Boehner's business.     

Civil Rights law doesn't apply to those situations, thank God.  It only applies to certain labor agreements. 

If you ever allow yourself to be placed in a protected category by the government, you might be in big, big trouble.    There is a good chance that The Law Of Unintended Consequences is going to kick you very hard.  Good luck. 

Wednesday, February 23, 2011

On Black Swans and Bastiat

I was minding my own business, reading Nassim Nicholas Taleb's brilliant book "The Black Swan", when I came across this next bit of libertarian brilliance. 

Here's a summary of Taleb's book from a guy named Aaron, from whose site I swiped the picture of the cover:
The premise of the book is simple enough. Basically, his thesis is that we think we know more about the world than we really do, and that there are “Black Swans” out there that exist beyond any models of forecasting we can build. The Black Swan notion comes from the belief people had for centuries - that all swans were white because no one ever saw a black swan, until they discovered it in Australia. Because people tend to imagine the world based on their empirical observations, people tend to have a “confirmation bias” that makes them notice things that fit their worldview, and ignore what they can’t fit in.
Taleb applies this comparison to investing, politics, relationships, etc. Parts of this excerpt seem kind of harsh at first, but please hear him out.  Great book.  This section is based on Bastiat's "Things Seen and Unseen" concept: 

What You See and What You Don't See

Katrina, the devastating hurricane that hit New Orleans in 2005, got plenty of politicizing politicians on television.  These legislators, moved by the images of devastation and the pictures of angry victims made homeless, made promises of "rebuilding".  It was so noble on their part to do something humanitarian, to rise above our abject selfishness. 

Did they promise to do so with their own money?  No.  It was with public money.  Consider that such funds will be taken away from somewhere else, as in the saying "You take from Peter to give to Paul."  That somewhere else will be less mediatized.  It may be privately funded cancer research, or the next efforts to curb diabetes.  Few seem to pay attention to the victims of cancer lying lonely in a state of untelevised depression.  Not only do these cancer patients not vote (they will be dead by the next ballot), but they do not manifest themselves to our emotional system.  More of them die every day than were killed by Hurricane Katrina; they are the ones who need us the most - not just our financial help, but our attention and kindness.  And they may be the ones from whom the money will be taken - indirectly, perhaps even directly.  Money (public or private) taken away from research might be responsible for killing them - in a crime that may remain silent. 

A ramification of the idea concerns our decision making under a cloud of possibilities.  We see the obvious and visible consequences, not the invisible and less obvious ones.  Yet those unseen consequences can be - nay, generally are - more meaningful. 

Frederic Bastiat was a nineteenth-century humanist of a strange variety, one of those rare independent thinkers - independent to the point of being unknown in his own country, France, since his ideas ran counter to French political orthodoxy (he joins another of my favorite thinkers, Pierre Bayle, in being unknown at home and in his own language).  But he has a large number of followers in America. 


(That's Frederic Bastiat the dachshund, posing by a pic of Frederic Bastiat the economist.)

In his essay "What We See and What We Don't See," Bastiat offered the following idea; we can see what governments do, and therefore sing their praises - but we do not see the alternative.  But there is an alternative; it is less obvious and remains unseen. 

Recall the confirmation fallacy: governments are great at telling you what they did, but not what they did not do.  In fact, they engage in what could be labeled as phony "philanthropy", the activity of helping people in a visible and sensational way without taking into account the unseen cemetery of invisible consequences.  Bastiat inspired libertarians by attacking the usual arguments that showed the benefits of governments.  But his ideas can be generalized to apply to both the Right and the Left. 

Bastiat goes a bit deeper.  If both the positive and the negative consequences of an action fell on its author, our learning would be fast.  But often an action's positive consequences benefit only its author, since they are visible, while the negative consequences, being invisible, apply to others, with a net cost to society.  Consider job-protection measures; you notice those whose jobs are made safe and ascribe social benefits to such protections.  You do not notice the effect on those who cannot find a job as a result, since the measure will reduce job openings. 


In some cases, as with the cancer patients who may be punished by Katrina, the positive consequences of an action will immediately benefit the politicians and phony humanitarians, while the negative ones take a long time to appear - they may never become noticeable.  One can even blame the press for directing charitable contributions toward those who may need them the least. 

Let us apply this reasoning to September 11, 2001.  Around twenty-five hundred people were directly killed by bin Laden's group in the Twin Towers of the World Trade Center.  Their families benefited from the support of all manner of agencies and charities, as they should.  But, according to researchers, during the remaining three months of the year, close to one thousand people died as silent victims of the terrorists.  How?  Those who were afraid of flying and switched to driving ran an increased risk of death.  There was evidence of an increase of casualties on the road during that period; the road is considerably more lethal than the skies. 

These families got no support - they did not even know that their loved ones were also the victims of bin Laden. 

....Have the guts to consider the silent consequences when standing in front of the next snake-oil humanitarian. 

Yeah.  Let's do that. 
The pic of Unintended Consequences came from here. 

Monday, January 17, 2011

Blowback - by Chalmers Johnson

From the introduction to Blowback by Chalmers Johnson, first published a year before the 9-11 attacks.  The "What - Me Worry?" interview with Brzezinski was done in 1998. 
The excerpt quoted below is from the intro to the latest (2004) reprint:

"The USSR's invasion of Afghanistan was deliberately provoked.  In his 1996 memoirs, former CIA director Robert Gates writes that the American intelligence services actually began to aid the mujahideen guerillas in Afghanistan not after the Soviet invasion of that country, but six months before it.  And in a 1998 interview with the French weekly magazine Le Nouvel Observateur, former president Carter's National Security Adviser, Zbigniew Brzezinski, unambiguously confirmed Gates's assertion. 


"According to the official version of history," Brzezinski told the Nouvel Observateur, "CIA aid to the mujuhideen began during 1980, that is to say, after the Soviet army invaded Afghanistan on December 24, 1979. 

I don't remember seeing any of this in the feel-good movie Charlie Wilson's War.  You know, the Tom Hanks and Julia Roberts movie where a renegade Texas Congressman finally goes through unlikely back channels to get them Afghan Boys some fundin'. 

But the reality, closely guarded until now, is completely otherwise:  Indeed, it was July 3, 1979, that President Carter signed the first directive for secret aid to the opponents of the pro-Soviet regime in Kabul.  and that very day, I wrote a note to the president in which I explained to him that in my opinion this aid was going to induce a Soviet military intervention." 

When asked whether he regretted these actions, Brzezinski replied:
"Regret what? That secret operation was an excellent idea.  It had the effect of drawing the Russians into the Afghan trap and you want me to regret it?  The day that the Soviets officially crossed the border, I wrote to President Carter, essentially: "We now have the opportunity of giving to the USSR its Vietnam War."
 
Nouvel Oservateur: "And neither do you regret having supported Islamic fundamentalism, which has given arms and advice to future terrorists?

Brzezinski: "What is more important in world history?  The Taliban or the collapse of the Soviet empire?  Some agitated Moslems or the liberation of Central Europe and the end of the cold war?"
Brzezinski, Carter, and their successors in the Regan administration, including George H.W. Bush, Gates, Cheney, Rumsfeld, Rice, Wolfowitz, Armitage, and Powell - none of whom has come forward to draw attention to this history - all vear some responsibility for the 1.8 million Afghan casualties, 2.6 million refugees, and 10 million unexploded land mines that followed from their decisions, as well as the "collateral damage" that befell New York City in September 2001 from an organization they helped create during the years of anti-Soviet Afghan resistance.   

Tuesday, December 14, 2010

"The Liberty Papers" on The Law Of Unintended Consequences

Good stuff here on The Law Of Unintended Consequences. 
It all reminds me of Thomas Sowell's life mantra:  "All government programs should be evaluated by the incentives they create, not by their stated goals." 

Go here to see their Top Ten Posts, selected from their 5 years of blogging.  Good stuff from The Liberty Papers.  Worth bookmarking for later reading. 

Sunday, November 7, 2010

Why Chuck can't start a business (along with a listing of every state agency in California)



And just for fun, compliments of the Maggie's Farm blog, here's a list of all the state agencies in California.




California Academic Performance Index (API) California Access for Infants and Mothers California Acupuncture Board California Administrative Office of the Courts California Adoptions Branch California African American Museum California Agricultural Export Program California Agricultural Labor Relations Board California Agricultural Statistics Service California Air Resources Board (CARB) California Allocation Board California Alternative Energy and Advanced Transportation Financing Authority California Animal Health and Food Safety Services California Anti-Terrorism Information Center California Apprenticeship Council California Arbitration Certification Program California Architects Board California Area VI Developmental Disabilities Board California Arts Council California Asian Pacific Islander Legislative Caucus California Assembly Democratic Caucus California Assembly Republican Caucus California Athletic Commission * California Attorney General  California Bay Conservation and Development Commission California Bay-Delta Authority California Bay-Delta Office California Biodiversity Council California Board for Geologists and Geophysicists California Board for Professional Engineers and Land Surveyors California Board of Accountancy California Board of Barbering and Cosmetology California Board of Behavioral Sciences California Board of Chiropractic Examiners California Board of Equalization (BOE) California Board of Forestry and Fire Protection California Board of Guide Dogs for the Blind California Board of Occupational Therapy California Board of Optometry California Board of Pharmacy California Board of Podiatric Medicine California Board of Prison Terms California Board of Psychology California Board of Registered Nursing California Board of Trustees California Board of Vocational Nursing and Psychiatric Technicians California Braille and Talking Book Library California Building Standards Commission California Bureau for Private Postsecondary and 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Hoover Commission (on California State Government Organization and Economy) Medical Board of California Medi-Cal Osteopathic Medical Board of California Physical Therapy Board of California Regents of the University of California San Diego State University San Francisco State University San Jose State University Santa Monica Mountains Conservancy State Bar of California Supreme Court of California Teach California University of California University of California, Berkeley University of California, Davis University of California, Hastings College of the Law University of California, Irvine University of California, Los Angeles University of California, Merced University of California, Riverside University of California, San Diego University of California, San Francisco University of California, Santa Barbara University of California, Santa Cruz * Veterans Home of California

Every one of these institutions is loaded full of folks who try to justify their existence by regulating yours. 
Good luck, Chuck ! 

Saturday, November 6, 2010

Keith Richards, on The Rolling Stones' tax strategy

I'm about 1/4 into Keith Richards' autobiography, Life. 


What a book, what a book.  This thing is enough to justify the invention of the printing press.  Forget the drugs, the partying, and his currently fashionable look that makes him appear to have dipped his hair into a fishing tackle box.  The first impression you get when you open this autobiography is that you're having a conversation with a very smart man. 
 
Here's Keef on The Rolling Stones' tax avoidance strategy, compliments of Greg Mankiw.  Incentives really do matter, don't they? 
The Stones are famously tax-averse. I broach the subject with Keith [Richards] in Camp X-Ray, as he calls his backstage lair. There is incense in the air and Ronnie Wood drifts in and out--it is, in other words, a perfect venue for such a discussion. "The whole business thing is predicated a lot on the tax laws," says Keith, Marlboro in one hand, vodka and juice in the other. "It's why we rehearse in Canada and not in the U.S. A lot of our astute moves have been basically keeping up with tax laws, where to go, where not to put it. Whether to sit on it or not. We left England because we'd be paying 98 cents on the dollar. We left, and they lost out. No taxes at all. I don't want to screw anybody out of anything, least of all the governments that I work with. We put 30% in holding until we sort it out." No wonder Keith chooses to live not in London, or even New York City, but in Weston, Connecticut.

Tax the rich all you want.  They'll just leave. 
You'll never see a robin drop worms into every nest in the forest. 

Monday, October 25, 2010

Don't bother reading this. It's just a series of funny pictures to make a very small point

From John Merline, on AOL News:

(Oct. 25) -- Throughout his presidential campaign and into his first two years in the White House, President Barack Obama portrayed himself as a champion of the middle class, ready to wage battle with big business and Wall Street fat cats to make sure the wealth got "spread around."

Back in March 2008, at a speech given on Wall Street, for example, he said that in the past, "we let the special interests put their thumbs on the economic scales. The result," he said, is "a market that favors Wall Street over Main Street."


In September of that year, he argued that "for too long, [the Bush] administration has been wiling to hit the fast-forward button" to help Wall Street firms, "while pressing pause when it comes to saving jobs or keeping people in their homes."

The next month, Obama said the country can't afford "four more years of the economic theory that says we should give more and more to millionaires and billionaires and hope that prosperity trickles down to everyone else. It's time to turn the page."

Main street vs. Wall Street


Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Realtor.com, Dow Jones industrial average.
This chart shows the changes in employment, earnings, home prices, disposable income, the Dow and corporate profits since President Obama took office.

And he said had a plan to do just that. "I've put forward a series of proposals," he said during the campaign, "that will foster economic growth from the bottom up."

But whatever his intentions, Obama's policies so far haven't exactly produced the results he promised.


In fact, the opposite has occurred.

As the nearby chart shows, by almost every measure, the middle class hasn't benefited much at all over the past two years – the number of employed has fallen while wages, disposable income and home prices have pretty much flatlined.


At the same time, Wall Street and big business have made out like bandits. The Dow is up 30 percent since Obama took office, and corporate profits have shot up 42 percent.

Meantime, companies are sitting on so much cash -- nearly $2 trillion worth -- they don't know what to do with it all. The non-financial companies in the S&P 500 index have seen their cash stockpile climb 26 percent over the previous year. Apple alone has amassed almost $26 billion in cash.

Obama may be right, as he said in August, that "on issue after issue, the Republicans in Congress have sided with corporate special interests over middle-class families."

But when it comes to actual results, Obama might want to take a good long look in the mirror.


The mirror pics came from here.  Let's throw in some Michael Jackson for your Monday.  

Sunday, October 10, 2010

In Praise Of Temp Services

A friend and I have been having Spontaneous Entrepreneurial Seizures (that means we want to start a small sideline business). 

We've been brainstorming the thing for a while, looking at possibilities. 

This afternoon, I was going through an online checklist of things to consider before taking a large step like this one.  One of the items was employees.  Where are you going to find them?  What are you looking for?  How much will you have to pay to attract the talent you need? 

Without even thinking about it, I made a note to myself to call a couple of Temp Services on Monday. 

Temp Services?  What the heck? 

1) Temp employees cost anywhere from 50% to 100% per hour more than the same employee is willing to work for as a permanent employee. 
2) The temp will leave you at the drop of a hat if he finds something better (and he often has the temp service in his corner working to achieve that objective.)
3) My "keep to hire" rate with temps is somewhere below 2%, and I bet I've worked with more than 100 this year alone.  I spend a lot of time re-training. 
4) My "keep for the lifetime of the project" rate with temps is somewhere below 25%.  Many of those guys are not invited back to work the next day.  Some don't even last until the first 15 minute break. 

So why in the world would anyone hire a temp, instead of hiring the worker outright? 

1) The employer doesn't have to mess with tax witholding (income tax withholding has been a temporary wartime measure since 1943).  I don't want to be in charge of paying anyone's taxes for them.  It is totally insane. 
 
2) If I hire an employee who doesn't work out, he or she can sue me for a large number of real or imaginary offenses should I end the work relationship.  It is totally insane. 

3) There's something in the works called ObamaCare ® .  You may have read something about it.  It is totally insane. 

 
4) The business we're considering is not particularly dangerous.  But have you looked at Worker's Comp insurance rates lately?  I'd rather insure an offshore oil rig than 10 typists.  It's totally insane.  Temp Services take care of insurance for you.  Yeah, it's included in the rate you pay, but the Temp Service deals with the government, not you.     

5) Then there's the gloriously mis-named Employee Free Choice Act, which would do away with secret ballots in unionization votes.  It's totally insane.   


6) In all of our conversations about starting this little sideline, we haven't had a single conversation about "Saving And Creating Jobs".  Not a single one.  We've only talked about creating something that people will value more highly than the amount it will cost us to produce it.  Can you imagine us pitching our idea to a legit bank or investor and starting the conversation with "We've come up with a way to create 50 jobs ! ! !"

No, if we want to be taken seriously, we'll have to walk in the door with a scheme that involves fewer people, not more.  The current bunch of Thieves & Looters in D.C. seem to reward people for taking the opposite approach, don't they? 
So until that mindset changes, I don't see us hiring anything but short-term temps.  The current political mess it totally insane.   

7) All businesses are forced to pay into an Unemployment Compensation Fund.  The amount you are charged depends on the number of people you release back into the marketplace without just cause.  I don't want to go through a demeaning song and dance of finding reasons to fire someone who hasn't done anything wrong, when I could pay a bit extra and have the problem taken out of my hands.  The mess my employer goes through in Human Resources is....totally insane.   

That's the way I see it right now, on 10-10-2010.  I could change my mind tomorrow.  Temp Services rule ! !

OK, Next question:  Why aren't more businesses hiring?

Fresh coats of Whitening to here and here and here and here for the pics. 

Monday, September 27, 2010

South Africa's minimum wage laws are working.

From The New York Holy Times:

....16 years after Nelson Mandela led the country to black majority rule, more than half of blacks ages 15 to 34 are without work — triple the level for whites.

....The sheriff arrived at the factory here to shut it down, part of a national enforcement drive against clothing manufacturers who violate the minimum wage. But women working on the factory floor — the supposed beneficiaries of the crackdown — clambered atop cutting tables and ironing boards to raise anguished cries against it.



Go here to read more about the racist origins of the U.S. minimum wage laws.  The authors of this legislation wanted to guarantee full white employment at the expense of blacks.  The issue was debated along those lines in Congress, and is one of the most successful pieces of legislation ever written, IF you look at it from the point of view of a Klansman.  
 
The cartoon above came from Carpe Diem, Professor Mark J. Perry's blog about economics and finance.  This next cartoon is somewhat off-topic, but I think it illustrates the same mindset. 
It's not about helping you.  It's about how I feel while I pretend to help you.